The Monty Hall Problem With a Simpler Explanation

Ok, let's replace the goats with red boxes.. The red boxes have 0 gold bars in them. Now let's replace the car with a green box, the green box has 1 gold bar inside of it. Now I will list how many gold bars that you can get if you always pick door 1 and always switch in 3 different box configurations.

First we have our first scenario, which has a 1/3 chance of happening if we always pick door 1:

1st and most confusing scanario: Door 1: Green Box, Door 2: Red Box, Door 3: Red Box.

Now if pick door 1 and switch from it.  We have a 0% chance of getting a green box  —The chances of us getting a green box— are the only chances that are relevant.

2nd scenario: Door 1: Red Box, Door 2: Green Box, Door 3: Red Box.

Now MONTY CAN ONLY LET US SWITCH TO THE GREEN BOX.  So we have a 100% chance of getting the green box.

3rd scenario: Door 1: Red Box, Door 3: Red Box, Door 2: Green Box.

Again MONTY CAN ONLY LET US SWITCH TO THE GREEN BOX.  So we have a 100% chance of getting the green box.

So let's recap: Scenario 1: 0% chance of winning, Scenario 2: 100% chance of winning, Scenario 3: 100% chance of winning.  So if we always switch (or always stay) we either definitely win or definitely lose.  And if we always switch, we definitely win in 2 out of the 3 scenarios.